When was the last time you thought about the Lib Dems?
In today's New Statesman, there is a rather reassuring post for us from this Labour-supporting journal.
When was the last time you thought about the Lib Dems? Reform has led the polls for almost eight months, Labour is the government (and engaged in an increasingly public leadership contest), the Conservatives are an improving opposition and the Greens are an insurgent one. Ed Davey and his party may hold 72 seats – more than any third party since 1923 – but they risk becoming the forgotten men of British politics.
Put this to Lib Dem strategists and they insist reports of their plight are exaggerated. A party which is sometimes squeezed outside of elections, has held its own in the polls this year (with around 13 per cent of the vote). More importantly, in a little-noticed trend, it is winning on the ground. Since the May local elections the party has won 55 council by-elections, putting it second only to Reform – increasingly the Lib Dems’ main opponent.
In a different era, when the Lib Dems pitched themselves to Labour’s left, Zack Polanski’s Greens could have represented a strategic nightmare. But if anything, senior Lib Dems believe they are benefiting in Blue Wall areas as environmentalist Tories take fright at eco-populism. Former Conservatives unwilling to forgive their old party but troubled by Labour’s left turn on tax and spend could enable further gains.
Strategists refuse to set a target for gains at the next general election – “we have no ceiling,” Davey insisted to me back in September. But they do not dismiss the suggestion that the Lib Dems could win around 100 seats at the next election, potentially allowing them to play a kingmaker role in a hung parliament. The scale of the party’s advance was mostly missed before July 2024 – the Lib Dems’ wager is that Westminster is making the same mistake again. ‘New Statesman’
My additional take to the obvious reference above to Lib Dems winning many local by-elections, is the sober and effective way Ed Davey currently uses his two questions he now has at Prime Minister's Questions each week. See today’s on BBC News.
Secondly, last week we won a vote in the House of Commons about joining the EU Customs Union, persuading several Green and Labour MPs to join us. That was historic, even though the BBC chose not to report it.
The third thread is that many of the 72 MPs have made extremely positive impacts inside and outside the Commons Chamber. Note Josh Barbarinde, our MP for next door Eastbourne, the new President of our Party, Calum Miller, who speaks on foreign affairs and Lisa Smart who is our Cabinet Office spokesperson.
The fourth is the fact that Lib Dems are the biggest party in the Alliance, ruling Rother, with a win in the Catsfield and Crowhurst by-election and two former Independent councillors strengthening our already powerful list of councillors, continuing to do their best for their communities and the whole of Rother.
So 2025 has been a very good year for the Lib Dems.
Stephen Hardy MBE
